For Immediate Release: July 17, 2008
Connolly Holds 31 Point Lead in New Poll
Fairfax, VA – Gerry Connolly, Democratic Congressional Candidate in Virginia’s 11th District, today released internal polling results showing him leading Republican Keith Fimian 52%-21% in an initial head-to-head match-up, demonstrating that voters are responding to Gerry Connolly’s proven record of getting results.
“The voters of the 11th District know my record and my ability to get things done,” said Connolly. “In Congress, I will bring my commonsense, results-oriented approach to help solve our energy crisis, expand access to affordable health care, and get our economy back on track.”
The poll was conducted July 10-14, 2008 by Lake Research Partners among 500 likely general election voters. A polling memo is attached below.
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To: Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri
Date: July 16, 2008
Subject: Polling in Virginia’s 11th CD
A new Lake Research Partners’ survey of likely voters shows that Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is the strong favorite to win this contest in November and change this seat from red to blue. This race — for the seat currently held by Republican Tom Davis — is consistently ranked as one of the strongest Democratic pick-up opportunities, and this survey validates that argument. Republican Keith Fimian, however, has the ability to self-fund. If Connolly has the funds to communicate his message of having the right priorities and getting things done for Northern Virginia, he will be the next Congressman from this district.
Connolly is well ahead in the initial horserace and grows that lead even after voters are introduced to positive and negative information on both candidates.
Initially, Connolly leads Fimian 52% to 21%. A quarter of voters are undecided, and Independent Green Party candidate Joe Oddo receives 2%.
Notably, even though Connolly has majority support now, he has room to grow his vote. After voters hear a positive profile of both candidates with language they currently use, Connolly leads 54% to 27%. He doubles Fimian’s vote share and receives well over majority support.
Finally, after a simulated campaign introducing negative and positive information on both candidates, Connolly wins 58% to 23%, expanding his vote share and stunting Fimian’s growth.
In summary, this is a real pick-up opportunity for Democrats as they seek to expand their governing majority. Connolly is well-positioned to win, and he leads early.
Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey was conducted among 500 registered voters in Virginia’s 11th CD who say they are likely to vote in November. The survey was conducted July 10 to 14, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
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